This is my first post on these forums, so let me just say this is a beautifully constructed game with a message that needs to be heard.
On to my point. After 3 or 4 tries I finally survived to the end (war ended on Day 36). It was a very near thing, I only had one character left and he was severely injured, and none of the original survivors in the group made it. I was just playing for time with virtually no supplies left. A few more days and I probably wouldn't have made it to finally see what the end of the game looks like. I was also very happy that I was able to do this without visiting the old couple in the quiet house.
What made a HUGE difference for me was prioritizing defense. As soon as possible I upgraded the workbench so that I could plug the holes in the house. After plugging all three, I also made sure the group always had at least one melee weapon (knife, crowbar, shovel) in the house at night. Later I found a working pistol with five rounds in a locked cabinet in the grocery store basement. I left it at the house as well.
In terms of the defense situation at night, this made a huge difference. I realized that the night time losses, supplies stolen, injuries suffered, were too much. It was completely wiping out any gains I made during the day and creating a constant demand for medical supplies that ate through the group's resources.
After I prioritized defense, the raids would still happen, but 9 times out of 10, no one would be hurt and no supplies stolen. With the worst of the raiding we'd lose some ammunition (through shots fired at bad guys) but that was about it. It allowed me to worry less about gathering bandages and focus on other wants and needs.
Later when I ran out of ammo for the pistol and got very desperate I traded the pistol away. After that one of the raids did cause injury to my one lone survivor.
So...helpful tip.
P.S. In the same game I also discovered that moonshine is worthwhile. Really good trade item, but also for sharing among the survivors. I'm still not fully clear on its impact on them, but I suspect there is a morale benefit. When I first started playing the game I didn't put a lot of stock in the idea of going into the moonshine business, but having moonshine around made a noticeable dent in my ability to trade with the day-time traders for whatever the group needed.