I finished the game at day 45. After you know the mechanics, its a piece of cake really. I started my second run today, because i thought maybe i was lucky the first time. But i am almost at day 20 again, everything is going fine, enough food, medicine, bandages, moonshine, etc.
You can break the game down into 4 different phases:
1) Beginning (mild temperature)
2) Rebels vs. Military: Some Locations are unreachable because of the fighting
3) Wintertime (cold): Some locations are unreachable because of the snow
4) Endgame (mild temperature): Shelter Raids: you nearly get attacked every night at the shelter until the peacekeeper army ends the war.
The praised randomness for replayability is there, but doesn't go very far. Some locations are always the same, like the elderly couple, or the son who protects his parents. Some locations have randomnized scenarios(but i think not more than 2 choices). The supermarket for example: The soldier who wants to rape the woman or the band of armed men who scavenge there, but they are peaceful.
My suggestions for making the game harder (Hardcore mode):
Nerf the rat traps (2 traps and you have all the food you need, so much that you can trade it away regulary)
Nerf moonshine production (its too easy, there is alot of sugar around, i always have a stock of minimum 6 bottles when the trader comes)
Reduce the amount of medicine(i never need to produce meds or bandages, i never need to use herbal meds cause there is plenty of meds to aquire through scavenging, stealing or trade.
Random Events at the shelter: More negative scenarios, like a sickness where the whole team gets sick, spoilage of raw food, the people that knock on your door: more negative scenarios (example the kids who collect meds and food for their mother. Chance 50/50 that the mother dies, they knock at your door to seek shelter: yes=2 more mouths too feed, no=whole team is depressed)
A longer war: the war is kinda short...from 30-50 days.
Gotta say you did a really good work with the game. I would love a DLC with more locations, harder gameplay, longer war.